Fuel crisis: the numbers are in — and more is coming

South Africa’s fuel prices have increased for the third consecutive month. Effective 6 May 2026, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirmed increases of R3.27 per litre for petrol (93 and 95) and R5.27 per litre for diesel — following the correction of a calculation error in the department’s initial announcement. The inland retail price of petrol 95 has risen to R26.63 per litre. Wholesale diesel has crossed R30 per litre for the first time in South Africa’s history.

These increases have arrived despite continued government intervention to cushion the impact. That intervention is now being wound down. Employers need to understand what is confirmed, what is coming, and what it means for their operations.

Petrol 93 & 95: R3.27/litre increase — effective 6 May 2026

Diesel (both grades): R5.27/litre increase — effective 6 May 2026 (corrected from initially announced R6.19)

Petrol 95 inland retail price: R26.63/litre

Diesel wholesale (inland): R31.17/litre — first time above R30/litre

Third consecutive monthly increase: April and March 2026 also recorded significant hikes

Source: Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources — Official Media Statement, 6 May 2026; correction statement issued 5 May 2026

What is driving this

The primary driver is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its effect on global oil supply. The DMPR’s official statement confirms that the average Brent crude oil price increased from USD 93.67 to USD 101 per barrel during the review period. This was driven by continued US-Iran tensions, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime passage through which approximately 20% of global oil supply moves — and damage to associated infrastructure.

Middle distillates, which include diesel and paraffin, were disproportionately affected. Reduced supply from the Persian Gulf and elevated demand pushed diesel prices higher than petrol — hence the larger diesel increase.

A second factor compounds the international pressure. The cumulative slate balance — the account that tracks under-recoveries by fuel importers — reached a negative position of R14.173 billion at the end of March 2026. In terms of the Self-Adjusting Slate Levy Mechanism, a slate levy of 122.70 cents per litre was applied to both petrol and diesel from 6 May, adding materially to the pump price.

The rand provided no relief. It remained largely stable against the US dollar — averaging R16.65 for the review period — meaning the exchange rate neither absorbed nor amplified the international price movement.

Source: DMPR Official Media Statement, 6 May 2026 — gov.za

The levy relief: what it is, and when it ends

Government introduced a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy in April 2026 in response to the Middle East conflict. The R3.00 per litre reduction has applied to petrol since 1 April. For diesel, the relief was extended and increased in May — effectively bringing the diesel levy to zero for the period 6 May to 2 June 2026.

This cushioning has prevented pump prices from being even higher. But it is temporary, and the phase-out schedule is now confirmed.

Confirmed levy phase-out schedule — National Treasury

6 May to 2 June 2026: Petrol levy relief remains at R3.00/litre. Diesel levy effectively zero.

3 June to 30 June 2026: Relief halved — R1.50/litre for petrol, R1.96/litre for diesel.

From 1 July 2026: Full levy reinstated — R4.10/litre for petrol, R3.93/litre for diesel.

Source: National Treasury — Media Statement on Extension of Short-Term Relief Measures, April 2026 — gov.za

In practical terms:

the current pump price already reflects the levy reduction. When that reduction is removed in two stages — June and July — the levy component of fuel prices increases by up to R3.00 per litre for petrol and R3.93 per litre for diesel, relative to current levels. The total cost to government of the relief from April to June 2026 is estimated at R17.2 billion in foregone tax revenue.

Whether the final July pump price is higher or lower than today will also depend on where global oil prices settle between now and then. Given the ongoing instability in the Middle East, that remains uncertain.

What this means for employers — now

Fuel is not a single cost. It is a cost that moves through the business. Transport and logistics costs increase directly. Suppliers who carry fuel costs adjust their pricing. Service providers pass on higher operational expenses. These adjustments do not always happen immediately — but they do happen, and they accumulate.

Employers should be asking three practical questions right now.

Where is fuel cost entering your business — and how much?

Map the points of fuel exposure: your own transport and fleet costs, supplier pricing that is fuel-linked, delivery and logistics fees, and energy-intensive operational processes. Without this picture, cost adjustments tend to be reactive rather than targeted.

What contracts or pricing arrangements are fuel-linked?

Review supplier agreements for fuel escalation clauses or cost-recovery mechanisms. Where contracts allow for price adjustments, those adjustments are likely coming. Engage suppliers early — before invoices arrive.

What does July look like?

The current pump price reflects levy relief that will not be there in July. Combined with whatever the prevailing international oil price and exchange rate produce, July’s adjustment could represent a significant further increase. Businesses that plan now — reviewing pricing, margins, supplier terms and operational costs — are better positioned than those that respond after the fact.

What early action looks like in practice

In stable conditions, businesses review cost structures periodically. In a sustained volatile environment, that review cycle needs to shorten. Practical early-stage responses include:

Reviewing pricing structures — not annually, but in shorter cycles aligned to cost movement
Renegotiating supplier terms where fuel-linked escalation is material
Consolidating routes, orders or deliveries to reduce fuel exposure
Identifying operational efficiencies that can offset cost increases without reducing headcount
Reviewing cashflow projections with July's levy reinstatement factored in

None of these are drastic measures. But applied consistently, they reduce the likelihood that more severe interventions become necessary later.

The wider context

The fuel price increases are not arriving in isolation. As this edition of Heads-Up covers, employers are simultaneously navigating the BCEA earnings threshold change effective 1 May, the Constitutional Court’s parental leave ruling already in force, a confirmed expansion of labour inspections, and the legislative proposals in the Labour Law Amendment Bill. Each of these carries its own compliance or cost implication.

The compounding effect matters. Cost decisions — particularly those affecting employment — are increasingly being made under pressure from multiple directions simultaneously. Decisions taken in that environment benefit from deliberate assessment rather than reactive urgency.

Final consideration

Employers cannot control global oil prices or the geopolitical developments driving them. What is within reach is a clear understanding of how those prices are entering the business, where exposure is greatest, and what adjustments — made now — reduce the impact of what is confirmed to be coming in June and July.

Where additional support is needed in assessing operational pressure points or identifying stabilisation strategies, (SA)UEO, through its partnership with Recalibrate, is able to connect employers with vetted specialists. Members are encouraged to engage with their organiser or to contact info@saueo.co.za for further guidance.

Sources:

• Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources — Official Media Statement: Fuel Price Adjustments for May 2026, effective 6 May 2026 (gov.za).

• DMPR correction statement issued 5 May 2026; National Treasury — Media Statement on Extension of Short-Term Relief Measures to Address Fuel Price Increases (gov.za).